Really hard to say without an up close inspection. If that ceiling is like mine, the vinyl is stretched between two pieces of plywood that are screwed to the plywood ceiling. The plywood bosses protrude about half an inch. It looks like the puckering is on the bosses themselves. I am try to imagine what has caused that.
I wouldn't jump to water and rivets without looking at it. You may be right, but who knows.
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Richard Rhonda Ty and Alex Entrekin
1995 Newell # 390 DD Series 60, Allison World Trans
Subaru Outback toad
CoMotion Tandem
Often wrong, but seldom in doubt
Rhonda's chronicle https://wersquared.wordpress.com/
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